The Dunning Kruger Effect & Cognitive Dissonance

I have been meaning to write about this subject for quite some time. I believe knowing a little about the two subjects of the Dunning Kruger effect and Cognitive Dissonance can enhance a person’s ability to navigate through life as a more well-adjusted individual, as well as help us improve our ability as horse riders and horse people. 

The Dunning Kruger effect is a form of psychological bias originating from a series of studies starting in the 1990s by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger. A simplified explanation for what the Dunning Kruger effect is, is this – that (in our western culture), a person will often overestimate their ability and knowledge in any given field – and the less knowledgeable and competent a person is, the more they will overestimate their ability. So, a person who is relatively uninformed and poor at a task will overestimate their knowledge, competence, and ability at that task.

We all fall victim to the Dunning Kruger effect in some way. It goes without saying that at some point of our lives we have overestimated our knowledge or competency at something. And we have been at the mercy of someone who lacks any real knowledge of proficiency, yet is oblivious to their own shortcomings.

The Dunning Kruger effect is problematic for two reasons. Firstly, a person will perform poorly at a task due to a lack of knowledge as well as overestimating their ability. And secondly, they will be unaware of their shortcomings and unable to recognise their mistakes as they lack the knowledge and ability to analyse those mistakes, (or even be aware that mistakes have been made). A person held within the bounds of the Dunning Kruger effect will also have the problem that they are only able to view themselves and their competency from a limited highly subjective point of view. From their own limited perspective a person feels highly skilled, knowledgeable, or superior to others – and therefore will demonstrate overconfidence in their endeavours, oblivious to their actual level of competency.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Given a small amount of information on any given subject, with this information viewed through a narrow and highly subjective lens, it is possible for a person with an incredibly limited knowledge of a subject to vocalise opinions and advice on that subject to the detriment of all around. As an example I once had the mother of a new and young horse rider try to discuss with me the veracity of the application of various training techniques I use, yet this person was by their own admission too afraid of horses to even lead one.

So how do we avoid falling into the trap of the Dunning Kruger effect? In many ways in some parts of our lives it’s going to happen to us regardless, it is a human failing and we are all only human after all. But learning a little about how the mind works can help inoculate us from the worst of its effects.

We should Question our knowledge. We should look to challenge our beliefs and strive to keep as open a mind as possible, looking for feedback from instructors, and try to identify areas of weakness in your beliefs and techniques. 

Keep practicing and trying to learn. The more you realise there is more to learn, the less inclined you will be to assume a level of proficiency above your actual level.

The second logical fallacy I will briefly mention here is called Cognitive Dissonance. I will write a sister article to this one in the near future (It will be called Cognitive Dissonance & the Dunning Kruger effect). When combined, the two of these logical fallacies work hand in hand to our detriment.

Cognitive dissonance is when a mind is presented with ideas or information in conflict with already held beliefs. It is the uncomfortable sensation of being presented with information contrary to what you already believe. 

You might be forgiven to think that when a reasonable person is presented with information that is contrary to their established beliefs that they would acknowledge and change those beliefs. The reality unfortunately is that in most cases a person will double down on their original belief and mentally adjust their world view to suit this purpose. 

Here is one example of Cognitive Dissonance. A person drives a large gas guzzling truck. They are exposed to scientifically verifiable and near universally accepted information that states climate change and damage to the ozone layer is caused in large part by unnecessary burning of fossil fuels. The guilt and shame felt by the individual over the fact they both enjoy their vehicle, yet will have contributed (however small) to the damage caused to our planet, is called Cognitive Dissonance. All people are different, and depending on how much ego and self-worth is invested in the joy of driving a large vehicle, the individual may make some lifestyle changes based on this new information. But it is more likely the individual will create an excuse to limit the effect of guilt, or in fact create an alternate world view that global warming does not exist – and go looking for information to justify and validate the more comfortable world view. As for some people it is easier to live with a comforting lie rather than the uncomfortable truth…

So imagine what happens when you present information that contradicts the beliefs held by a person caught in the Dunning Krueger effect. We understand that this person has a very small level of experience in the subject, yet for one reason or another has built an idea of self-worth and a world view based on a lot of assumptions they have made from the limited knowledge they possess. You are questioning their strongly held beliefs with your information – and causing Cognitive Dissonance. This is a subject that they are emotionally invested in and will define their self-worth by (can be anything from political views, to horse training techniques etc.), as well as their character and value as person. It is almost inevitable this individual will not only disagree with your view. They will double down on their beliefs and find your view to be offensive, the most likely emotion they will feel will be anger. (We have all felt a degree of anger or annoyance when someone contradicts our world view).

By having a rudimentary understanding of various logical fallacies and heuristics we can prevent ourselves from falling into the most dangerous aspects of their effects. We can’t all be psychologists or educated in neuropsychology – but if we can strive to leave space in our minds for new interpretations of strongly held ideas then we can somewhat avoid the pitfalls of the Dunning Kruger effect. And if we can learn not to tie our self-worth into anything other than the good we try to do in our lives then we can avoid the uncomfortable feeling of cognitive dissonance.